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<channel>
	<title>Agiboo</title>
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	<link>http://www.agiboo.com</link>
	<description>Passion for Commodities</description>
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		<item>
		<title>Agiboo and DTN partnership</title>
		<link>http://www.agiboo.com/agiboo-and-dtn-join-to-provide-world-class-risk-management-experience</link>
		<comments>http://www.agiboo.com/agiboo-and-dtn-join-to-provide-world-class-risk-management-experience#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 25 Apr 2013 11:37:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Agiboo</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[News & Events]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.agiboo.com/?p=2116</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Amsterdam, The Netherlands and Minneapolis, Minn. USA — April 25, 2013 — Agiboo BV and DTN today announced the formation of a strategic partnership to develop communications interfaces for streaming DTN information into the Agiblocks Commodity trade and Risk Management (CTRM) system. The interfaces will help commodity traders and purchasers using the Agiblocks system to [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>Amsterdam, The Netherlands and Minneapolis, Minn. USA — April 25, 2013</strong> — Agiboo BV and DTN today announced the formation of a strategic partnership to develop communications interfaces for streaming DTN information into the Agiblocks Commodity trade and Risk Management (CTRM) system. The interfaces will help commodity traders and purchasers using the Agiblocks system to reduce manual data entry of pricing information and contracts allowing mark to markets, risk management on their physical and derivatives position including the use of Value at Risk (VaR).</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>The interfaces will facilitate the transfer of DTN information to the Agiblocks Commodity Trade and Risk Management system in multiple areas such as physical (inventory and physical contracts), futures, options and OTC contracts. Helping traders stay on top of the volatile, complex and fast-moving commodities market, the agreement provides traders with the ability to capitalize on market opportunities more effectively and increase efficiencies in their operations.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>&#8220;We see great benefit to our customers by reducing effort with the &#8216;mark to market&#8217; valuation process, improving contract pricing data integrity, and more efficiently managing offers in concert with DTN&#8217;s agribusiness tools,&#8221; says Jan van den Brom , CEO at Agiboo BV. &#8220;Being able to automatically run mark to market price contracts, and instantly have correct unrealized or realized P&amp;L (Profit and Loss) will be a most welcome labor-saving feature and moves risk management to a new level.”</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3>Contacts</h3>
<p><strong>For Agiboo BV:</strong><br />
Jan van den Brom, CEO,<br />
+310(0) 36 521 3131 jvdbrom@agiboo.com</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>For DTN:</strong><br />
Sandi Scott<br />
+1 (952) 851-7216, sscott@tunheim.com</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Pricing and Risk Management Seminar</title>
		<link>http://www.agiboo.com/pricing-and-risk-management</link>
		<comments>http://www.agiboo.com/pricing-and-risk-management#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 19 Apr 2013 14:10:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Agiboo</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[News & Events]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.agiboo.com/?p=2095</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[During the upcoming “Pricing and Risk Management in the Food Commodity Markets – Achieving an Effective Supply Chain to Manage Food Commodities Volatility”, Agiboo will provide an interactive workshop for participants. This event is organized by Marcus Evans and takes place on 13th and 14th of May in Thistle, Marble Arch, London, UK. Besides interactive [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>During the upcoming “<strong>Pricing and Risk Management in the Food Commodity Markets</strong> – <strong>Achieving an Effective Supply Chain to Manage Food Commodities Volatility</strong>”, Agiboo will provide an interactive workshop for participants. This event is organized by Marcus Evans and takes place on 13th and 14th of May in Thistle, Marble Arch, London, UK. Besides interactive workshops, this summit will offer panel discussions, round table sessions, and practical case studies presentations.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Jan van den Brom (CEO of Agiboo) will provide an interactive workshop, detailing how the GARCH calculation can be employed in price forecasting of commodity prices. GARCH is a econometric model, which estimates the volatility of a market and hence attempts to predict the price movement of financial instruments. The information gathered from this model can assist commodity traders, purchasers and producers in managing the price risk exposure. </p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Attend this interactive workshop to learn how GARCH can assist you in your risk management or visit one of the various other high-quality workshops or panel discussions.  For a complete overview of the two-day program click <a href='http://www.agiboo.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Programme_Pricing_and_Risk_Management.pdf' target='_blank'>here</a>. </p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Agiblocks for Microsoft Surface</title>
		<link>http://www.agiboo.com/agiblocks-on-microsoft-surface</link>
		<comments>http://www.agiboo.com/agiblocks-on-microsoft-surface#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 18 Mar 2013 13:50:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Agiboo</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[News & Events]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Agiblocks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Microsoft]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Surface]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tablet]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.agiboo.com/?p=2030</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[We are constantly improving the quality and functionalities of our commodity trade and risk management solution “Agiblocks” and are proud to announce yet another enhancement to our system. Agiblocks is now compatible with the new tablet developed by Microsoft, called Surface. This development gives you extended flexibility to manage your commodity trade and risk activities [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>We are constantly improving the quality and functionalities of our commodity trade and risk management solution “Agiblocks” and are proud to announce yet another enhancement to our system. Agiblocks is now compatible with the new tablet developed by Microsoft, called Surface. This development gives you extended flexibility to manage your commodity trade and risk activities any place, any time while maintaining the familiar and user-friendly interface of Agiblocks. </p>
<p><span id="more-2030"></span></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<div class="postvideo">
<p>View the commercial of Microsoft Surface here:</p>
<p><iframe width="500" height="281" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/U7UlE-o8DQQ?feature=oembed" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe></p>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Agiboo, Red Herring Finalist for Top 100 Europe</title>
		<link>http://www.agiboo.com/agiboo-is-a-finalist-for-the-2013-red-herring-top-100-europe-award</link>
		<comments>http://www.agiboo.com/agiboo-is-a-finalist-for-the-2013-red-herring-top-100-europe-award#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 15 Mar 2013 08:45:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Agiboo</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[News & Events]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Agiboo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Award]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Red Herring]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.agiboo.com/?p=1987</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Almere, The Netherlands – 15 March 2013 – Agiboo BV announced today it has been selected as a Finalist for Red Herring&#8217;s Top 100 Europe award, a prestigious list honoring the year’s most promising private technology ventures from the European business region. &#160; The Red Herring editorial team selected the most innovative companies from a [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Almere, The Netherlands – 15 March 2013 – Agiboo BV announced today it has been selected as a Finalist for Red Herring&#8217;s Top 100 Europe award, a prestigious list honoring the year’s most promising private technology ventures from the European business region.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>The Red Herring editorial team selected the most innovative companies from a pool of hundreds from across Europe. The nominees are evaluated on 20 main quantitative and qualitative criterion: they include disruptive impact, market footprint, proof of concept, financial performance, technology innovation, social value, quality of management, execution of strategy, and integration into their respective industries.</p>
<p><span id="more-1987"></span></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>This unique assessment of potential is complemented by a review of the actual track record and standing of a company, which allows Red Herring to see past the “buzz” and make the list a valuable instrument for discovering and advocating the greatest business opportunities in the industry.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>&#8220;This year was rewarding, beyond all expectations&#8221; said Alex Vieux, publisher and CEO of Red Herring. &#8220;The global economic situation has abated and there are many great companies producing really innovative and amazing products. We had a very difficult time narrowing the pool and selecting the finalists. Agiboo BV shows great promise and therefore deserves to be among the Finalists. Now we’re faced with the difficult task of selecting the Top 100 winners of Red Herring Europe. We know that the 2013 crop will grow into some amazing companies that are sure to make an impact.&#8221;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Finalists for the 2013 edition of the Red Herring 100 Europe award are selected based upon their technological innovation, management strength, market size, investor record, customer acquisition, and financial health. During the months leading up to the announcement, hundreds of companies in the telecommunications, security, Web 2.0, software, hardware, biotech, mobile and other industries completed their submissions to qualify for the award.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>The Finalists are invited to present their winning strategies at the Red Herring Europe Forum in Amsterdam, April 8-10, 2013. The Top 100 winners will be announced at a special awards ceremony the evening of April 10 at the event.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Agiboo Supports Developing Entrepreneurs</title>
		<link>http://www.agiboo.com/agiboo-supports-entrepreneurs-in-developing-countries</link>
		<comments>http://www.agiboo.com/agiboo-supports-entrepreneurs-in-developing-countries#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 26 Feb 2013 10:58:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Agiboo</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[News & Events]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Micro-Credit]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oxfam Novib]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Support]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.agiboo.com/?p=1891</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Agiboo is a professional organization delivering next generation CTRM solutions and professional consultancy services to the international commodity trading industry. Besides realizing these goals, we feel it is important as a company to be socially involved and make an effort to create a better world. For this reason we have chosen become a business ambassador [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Agiboo is a professional organization delivering next generation CTRM solutions and professional consultancy services to the international commodity trading industry. Besides realizing these goals, we feel it is important as a company to be socially involved and make an effort to create a better world. For this reason we have chosen become a business ambassador in order to promote the excellent work of Oxfam Novib.</p>
<p><span id="more-1891"></span></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<div class="postimage"><a href="http://www.agiboo.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/Oxfam_Novib_Farmers.jpg" rel="lightbox[1891]" title="Oxfam_Novib_Farmers" rel="wp-prettyPhoto[g1891]"><img src="http://www.agiboo.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/Oxfam_Novib_Farmers.jpg" alt="Farmers supported by Oxfam Novib" title="Oxfam_Novib_Farmers" width="275" height="196" class="alignright size-full wp-image-1905" /></a></div>
<p>Oxfam Novib applies itself for people living in poverty within developing countries. Their micro-financing program supplies people with a small credit, which provides them with the opportunity to start their own business and create an independent income. This enables them to build their future in their own country. We strongly believe in this initiative and therefore actively support it.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>As a company we feel it is important to contribute to a world without poverty and the same opportunities for everyone. Obtaining a loan can prove nearly impossible for people in developing countries. With our help they receive equal opportunities in creating a successful business and generate a self-sustainable income. Oxfam Novib assists us in carrying out our involvement for the community.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><em>“Oxfam Novib collaborates with corporations to create a world without poverty and equal opportunities for everyone, by offering micro-credit. At Oxfam Novib we believe in the strength of each individual. Taking care of yourself is essential in creating a independent life and furthermore contributes to the sustainable economical development of a country”</em> &#8211; <strong>Tom van der Lee, Director of campaigns Oxfam Novib</strong>                     </p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Agiboo supports coffee farmer in Honduras</title>
		<link>http://www.agiboo.com/agiboo-supports-coffee-farmer-in-honduras</link>
		<comments>http://www.agiboo.com/agiboo-supports-coffee-farmer-in-honduras#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 28 Jan 2013 13:20:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Agiboo</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[News & Events]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cordaid]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Micro-Credit]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Support]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.agiboo.com/?p=1842</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Micro finance for a coffee farmer in Honduras Together with his wife María Esperanza en their four children, Aurelio Pérez runs a small coffee plantation in the western part of Honduras. Aurelio: “I was able to buy my first piece of land by making use of micro finance”. Aurelio also invests his current microcredit in [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>Micro finance for a coffee farmer in Honduras</strong><br />
Together with his wife María Esperanza en their four children, Aurelio Pérez runs a small coffee plantation in the western part of Honduras. Aurelio: “I was able to buy my first piece of land by making use of micro finance”. Aurelio also invests his current microcredit in his coffee farm.</p>
<p><span id="more-1842"></span></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<div class="postimage"><img class="alignright size-medium wp-image-1847" title="Coffee Farmer Aurelio" src="http://www.agiboo.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/aurelio-2-300x225.jpg" alt="Coffee Farmer in Honduras" width="300" height="225" /></div>
<p><strong>Micro finance helps to secure income</strong><br />
As a coffee farmer Aurelio faces an uncertain income. He has to make many costs before he receives a return on investment. And still then, the harvest can be disappointing or coffee prices may drop due to decreasing demand or oversupply. “Micro finance helps to secure my income” states Aurelio. “We for example can buy an additional piece of land or we use microcredits to farm our land, buy fertilizer and to improve the quality of the coffee production process”.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Unus pro omnibus, omnes pro uno (One for all, all for one)</strong><br />
Aurelio’s whole family benefits of his microcredits, since they all work together on their father’s coffee plantation. “My children are between the age of 20 and 28. We all have our own piece of land, but we always help each other out. When we have cultivated a piece of land, we continue to the next one until everything is done”.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Aurelio’s next plan: A truck to transport his coffee</strong><br />
Since Aurelio is already of a certain age, how does he see the future? Aurelio: “I’m already an old man; I put my children’s interest before mine. Later this coffee plantation will be theirs and I don’t want them to work so hard. I don’t know if they agree, but later this year I would like to buy a truck to transport the coffee.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Aurelio’s retirement</strong><br />
“I worked hard during my whole life; I would like it to take it a little bit slower”. Hopefully in the near future I have saved enough money to sit back and relax a little bit more.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<div class="postimage"><img class="alignright size-full wp-image-1863" title="Cordaid" src="http://www.agiboo.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Cordaid.png" alt="Cordaid Micro-Credit" width="67" height="71" /></div>
<p><em>Agiboo is glad to be able to support coffee/ cocoa farmers such as Aurelio in cooperation with Cordaid.</em></p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Agiblocks Essentials Brochure</title>
		<link>http://www.agiboo.com/agiblocks-essentials-brochure</link>
		<comments>http://www.agiboo.com/agiblocks-essentials-brochure#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 11 Jan 2013 15:02:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Agiboo</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Media]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.agiboo.com/?p=1833</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Smaller companies in the commodity trade industry (1-5 users) don’t want to invest millions of euros and spend months or even years on a suitable solution for managing their inventory, position, futures – hedges, invoicing and sales and purchase contracts. They rather keep working with multiple programs or Excel sheets. Agiboo now presents the solution [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Smaller companies in the commodity trade industry (1-5 users) don’t want to invest millions of euros and spend months or even years on a suitable solution for managing their inventory, position, futures – hedges, invoicing and sales and purchase contracts. They rather keep working with multiple programs or Excel sheets. Agiboo now presents the solution for this problem, Agiblocks Essentials.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>For more information on this brand new solution, download the brochure <a href='http://www.agiboo.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Agiblocks_Essentials.pdf' target='_blank'>here</a></p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>Agiblocks Essentials</title>
		<link>http://www.agiboo.com/agiblocks-essentials</link>
		<comments>http://www.agiboo.com/agiblocks-essentials#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 10 Jan 2013 12:43:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Agiboo</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[News & Events]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Commodity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CTRM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Essentials]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Risk management]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trade]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.agiboo.com/?p=1799</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Smaller companies in the commodity trade industry (1-5 users) don’t want to invest millions of euros and spend months or even years on a suitable solution for managing their inventory, position, futures &#8211; hedges, invoicing and sales and purchase contracts. They rather keep working with multiple programs or Excel sheets. Agiboo now presents the solution [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Smaller companies in the commodity trade industry (1-5 users) don’t want to invest millions of euros and spend months or even years on a suitable solution for managing their inventory, position, futures &#8211; hedges, invoicing and sales and purchase contracts. They rather keep working with multiple programs or Excel sheets. Agiboo now presents the solution for this problem, Agiblocks Essentials.</p>
<p><span id="more-1799"></span></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3>What are the Essentials?</h3>
<p>Agiblocks Essentials is a CTRM solution aimed at mini and micro organizations (1-5 users) in the commodity industry, specific for soft commodities such as cocoa, sugar and coffee. This compact version of Agiblocks enables you to exercise control on all your commodity trading activities. Agiblocks Essentials contains all the essentials needed for commodity trade risk management but omits certain modules which are only necessary in larger firms with more complex environments which makes Agiblocks Essentials simpler, easier and even more affordable. Agiblocks Essentials is a compact system which contains the following blocks:</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<table width="100%" border="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>- Counterparties</td>
<td>- Contracts (Sales &amp; Purchases)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>- Relations</td>
<td>- Allocation</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>- Users</td>
<td>- Logistics</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>- Inventory</td>
<td>- Futures</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>- Forex</td>
<td>- Market-to-Market/ Position</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>- Market Data</td>
<td>- Invoicing</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3>The Agiblocks Essentials package deal</h3>
<p>• Implementation in 3 working days<br />
• Affordable price<br />
• Support available<br />
• Release of updated version every six months<br />
• Hosted server (local server optional, extra fee)<br />
• 1 day Agiblocks Essentials training</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>For more information download our <a href="http://www.agiboo.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Agiblocks_Essentials.pdf" target="_blank">brochure</a> or <a href="mailto:info@agiboo.com">contact us.</a></p>
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		<title>Agiblocks Windows 8 Ready !</title>
		<link>http://www.agiboo.com/windows-8-ready</link>
		<comments>http://www.agiboo.com/windows-8-ready#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Nov 2012 10:09:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Agiboo</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[News & Events]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Agiblocks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Microsoft]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Windows 8]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.agiboo.com/?p=1699</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Agiblocks is continuing to improve by making the solution compatible with windows 8. You can now use Agiblocks on the new operating system of Microsoft. The excellent support of Windows on mobile devices and flexibility makes it an ideal platform for running Agiblocks. You will now be able to manage your trading activities, request your [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Agiblocks is continuing to improve by making the solution compatible with windows 8. You can now use Agiblocks on the new operating system of Microsoft. The excellent support of Windows on mobile devices and flexibility makes it an ideal platform for running Agiblocks. You will now be able to manage your trading activities, request your actual position and make decisions  based on this information with greater ease anytime, anywhere.</p>
<p><span id="more-1699"></span></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<div class="postvideo">Please view the commercial video of Windows 8 below:</p>
<p><iframe width="500" height="281" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/EGJLEQUGgO0?feature=oembed" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe></p>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Term Structure and Roll Yield</title>
		<link>http://www.agiboo.com/term-structure-and-roll-yield</link>
		<comments>http://www.agiboo.com/term-structure-and-roll-yield#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Oct 2012 15:09:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Agiboo</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[News & Events]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Commodity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Exchange]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Futures]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.agiboo.com/?p=1676</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[We previously reported on an interesting article discussing commodities and hedging of commodity price risk. The author recently released a second article, discussing the yield for speculators on the commodity futures market. This article provides insight in the workings of price creation and can help understand future price developments.   This paper investigates potential sources [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center;">We previously reported on an interesting article discussing commodities and hedging of commodity price risk. The author recently released a second article, discussing the yield for speculators on the commodity futures market. This <a href="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1609776" target="_blank">article</a> provides insight in the workings of price creation and can help understand future price developments.</p>
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<p style="text-align: center;"><em>This paper investigates potential sources of return to speculators in the commodity futures market. Initially, we focus on “classic commodity theory” based on the ideas of Keynes (1930), Hicks (1939, 1946), Kaldor (1939), Working (1948, 1949) and Brennan (1958). Next our study examines backwardation and contango in line with current convention which references the term structure of the futures price curve. This “simplified commodity theory” provides rationale for a structural risk premium commonly referred to as the ‘roll yield’ (or ‘roll return’). We then introduce our theory of “roll yield permutations” which is derived from integrating the term structure of the futures price curve with the expected future spot price variable. Discussion includes implication of rational expectations, equilibrium theory, reflexivity, the Sonnenschein-Mantel-Debreu theorem and microfoundations theory upon commodity pricing models.</em></p>
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<p style="text-align: center;"><em>Our research indicates that these models have inherent shortcomings in being able to pinpoint a definitive source of structural risk premium within the complexity of the commodity futures markets. We surmise that the roll yield is a flawed concept derived from an accounting fiction which mixes past and present prices, and skews performance attributions either on a levered or delevered basis. We conclude that classic commodity theory encompasses reflexivity, and as a consequence, reflects the potential for disequilibrium as well as equilibrium. We extend this disequilibrium/equilibrium hypothesis and argue that the term structure of the futures price curve, while suggestive of a potential roll yield benefit or detriment, in fact implies a complex series of roll yield permutations. We are not saying, however, that commodity pricing theory is erroneous. Models as reflections of reality do not operate to the exclusion of the other; rather, these models are inter-related and each reflect certain aspects and dynamics within the futures market paradigm. Consequently, we assume market dynamics reverberate between models, as well as feedback within models resulting in a constant disequilibrium/equilibrium tension.</em></p>
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<p style="text-align: center;">Click <a href="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1609776http://" target="_blank">here</a> to read the full article.</p>
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